League tables: Performance today is not performance tomorrow.

It is silly season in Universities. It is the time of year when the league table updates come out and universities start interpreting that last data point. This is one of several posts on the disease visited upon UK higher education. Yes, I am talking to you at the guardian and you at the Complete University Guide. 

Performance today is not performance tomorrow. It takes 4-5 years from the time a student chooses a university and when they graduate. League table position varies over that time. Consider 5 universities: Derby, Nottingham, Nottingham Trent, Sheffield and Sheffield Hallam. These have been chosen because they are all close by and are within about 50 miles of each other.

University	Average League Table Position	Range	Range as percent of average
Derby	100	21	21
Nottingham	20	7	35
Nottingham Trent	56	13	23
Sheffield	26	3	11
Sheffield Hallam	69	14	20

These data mean that over 5 years a University’s league table position may vary greatly both in absolute and real terms. These can be very large even in a single year.  Northampton jumped up 39 places 2013-2014. The Royal Agricultural University dropped 32 places 2014-2015. Really. These changes are meaningless either way. Having seen the inside of many Universities, I can assure you real change mostly happens slowly and mostly no one notices. 

Take home message: If you are making a decision about your choice of University based on 20-30 league table positions, you are making a bad decision. If you are evaluating your institution based on a single year's upward or downward change in league table position, you are likely doing it badly.