The countdown to the extinction of Engineering and Physical Sciences in the UK: 5 years left

There has been a sea change in the funding of engineering and physical sciences during my time in the UK. My perception of this change is that the community is less vibrant and it was only recently that I realised this perception has roots outside my local experience. This change is not specific to a particular University. It is large scale policy at work. 

During the 2005/6 year (the one I began work in the UK), the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) entertained 5138 proposals and funded 1477. By 2013/14 this had changed to 1918 proposals accepted and only 620 funded. This is an enormous drop. The number of awards and proposals were roughly 40% of what they were a decade before. 

In case there is confusion, consider the graph below.

This figure shows the number of proposals awarded in a particular year and if the trend continues, EPSRC will cease to fund proposals in about five years.

Let’s be clear about some things. This seems to be a bipartisan problem. It is unclear when the rot started, but it existed under Labour and continues under the Tory/Lib Dem coalition. 

What is driving this? EPSRC policy and a stagnation in total awarded funds. 

How does this work?

EPSRC adopted a policy that actively discourages submission of proposals by scientists whose proposals are unsuccessful. There is some merit in the concept. A proposal consisting of old and tired ideas just makes additional work in review and having it repeatedly submitted helps no one. On the other hand, many rejected proposals are not like this. Many are good ideas that a not funded due to lack of funds not because the ideas are no good. 

ESPRC has also tended to favour bigger awards – and make fewer of them. The figure below shows how this has played out over the last decade.

From this it is clear that where a typical award in 2004 might have been £250k, now it is closer to £650k. This is policy at work, not inflation.

In an environment where funding appears stagnant (£401M in 2004/5 and £366M in 2013/14) this all combines to mean that fewer ideas are being put forward and fewer submitted proposals are being funded.

The bottom line is that in 2013/14 the UK had 857 fewer fundable ideas than it did roughly a decade earlier. Where have those ideas gone?