Tuesday, 13 February 2018

Consumer Price Inflation Data and Education

Today the Office of national statistics released a data set describing cost of living information along with a number of other key economic statistics. If you are interested in the ONS spreadsheet itself you can find it here.

If you go to Table 23 there is Consumer Price Index data from 2004 to 2017. This roughly covers the time I have been in the UK.

What I had not appreciated was the enormous inflation in education. Here is a graph.


This indicates that education costs have increase by nearly a factor of 3 over a 13 year period. This is as troubling as it is unsustainable. Nothing else comes close. Overall inflation was about 32% but for education it was about 269%. 

It can be argued that some of this is due to the government moving education costs from taxes to consumers, but this is not sufficient. Everyone would have expected a step when top up fees were introduced and another when the new fee regime came into force. This is very different. 

Friday, 26 August 2016

Who Benefits Part II: Who Are the beneficiaries of a University Education?

Please read the preceding post about profit and subsidy as it will make this discussion clearer.

Disclaimer: I work in a UK university and the university I work for is subsidized by the government. The current fee regime does not pay the full cost for some degree programmes (medicine, physical sciences, etc.) despite the current burden on the students.  UK Universities are mostly not for profit organisations (with a few exceptions). In keeping with the preceding considerations, I think there should be salary controls in State subsidized businesses, even not for profit ones. 

This and the previous discussion arose from concerns about my students, particularly those from lower income backgrounds. As a group they leave University heavily in debt. In my field entry level jobs can pay under the threshold for repayment. This can mean a long term debt that could triple the cost of the university education or require eventual write off of the loan. It will probably fall heaviest on female graduates who achieve higher results at all levels until entering the workplace where they earn less and areis more likely to take career breaks to raise children.

As mentioned in an earlier post, the cost of fees and the debt service may well exceed the increased earnings expected by obtaining a university education. I am unconvinced that a poor student attending University on the back of loans gains any economic benefit from their degree. For students who can pay upfront, I am convinced there is economic benefit. There are “intangible” benefits of an education, but these may be lost on a person heavily in debt.

Who gets economic benefit from the degree of a student from a poorer background? I don’t think the student does.  Let’s list some beneficiaries:

1)      Universities benefit because they get the money up front and for certain subjects they get an additional payment from the government.

2)      Employers benefit. Although the earning difference between degree holding and non-degree holding workers has declined, UK businesses still hire graduates and pay them better. Presumably they do this because the productivity of University graduates is higher.

3)      University associated industries benefit. These include providers of housing, books, food, etc. Most university associated accommodation stock in the UK is now privately managed.

4)      The government (although this is speculative) probably benefits through higher tax receipts due to higher productivity and more competitive industries. This may be from increased corporation taxes, VAT, and taxes on dividends.

5)      Private buyers of student loan debt (when this is done) will benefit if they can collect the debt. It is likely that the government will lose out on such a sale.

I am sure there are more economic beneficiaries, but the problem here is that the low income student may not benefit at all.

Let’s wind forward in the direction higher education funding has been going and consider a not unlikely scenario. Consider a future in which there is no state support for University Education. In this future, students must pay the full cost of their education. Consider a future in which the fee controls are further relaxed and the cost of attendance increases to what Oxford proposed a few years back (£16K or more).

All of the beneficiaries listed (1-5) should think long and hard about this.

Universities need to speak more truth to power about the unfairness of poorer students not being clear beneficiaries of their own education and think about the amounts being given to senior managers and how they facilitate university associated industries to extract money out of students.

Employers profiting from staff with skills they did not invest in need to think about the world their advocacy is creating. Why should they benefit from increased productivity while hard-working students from poorer backgrounds may not? Why should you get benefit of something you invested nothing in? Why should students and their families subsidise your business? Yes, supply and demand is involved in these considerations, but so is the legal and political framework which determines the way cost, profit and loss are calculated. Like the tobacco industry, do you think you make “profit” when you pay only a small fraction of the total cost of doing business? If you refuse to pay that cost, why shouldn’t your taxes increase or minimum wage requirements change?

If you are a university associated industry, how do you become less parasitic and more efficient to provide better less costly goods and services? How to you become a productive industry that improves the opportunities for your customers rather than banking on someone else’s long term debt which will squeeze off their opportunities and freedom to take risks and innovate?

Is the government creating a world that rewards educational attainment in a fair way? As government support for students is removed, how is a meritocracy created when accident of birth (the wealth of your parents) determines long term benefit? How can the government create a model that allows those educating themselves to benefit from that education rather than a host of others?


Why should buyers of student loan debt get a loan portfolio at a discount? Why can’t this be offered directly to the students? Why should taxpayers be stuck with the bill, while you profit?

Who Benefits Part I: Profit or Subsidy?

This will initially appear off topic, but please be patient as it is background for something education related.

If you are a corporation declaring a “profit”, how much of that is “profit” and how much is “subsidy”?  The UK has something called working tax credit. Under certain conditions if you work and your employer pays you below a minimum amount, the government will top up your salary with credits. The idea is that people who work should have a living wage. If they don’t, the government steps in and helps with the gap. Who pays for this? Well some way or another it is paid by taxpayers.

Let’s consider a world where a business wants to gain a competitive advantage by lowering labour costs. There is incentive for them to lower wages, let the government pay the difference between what they receive and a living wage and declare a profit. When a “profit” is declared under those circumstances, can it be called “profit” or is it better referred to as “subsidy”?

This circumstance is reality. There are additional benefits given to people with low incomes.  For example, housing benefit (~£24 billion). The system is complex and a new Universal credit is being introduced.  However, for illustration, let’s look at an extreme hypothetical case. Why not have the government pay the entire salary costs (and while we are at it all other costs) and the corporation take all the income going into the business as “profit”? Clearly this would be absurd. At what point does absurdity turn into appropriate behavior?

I don’t have a problem with subsidizing corporations or investing in key industries. The problem for me starts when a business model requires these subsidies to make a “profit”. Similarly, I do not have a problem with supporting people who are out of work or fall on hard times through various forms of subsidy and help. If they were to grow rich from that assistance, it would bother me.

The point here is that a company getting indirect subsidy from the government by requiring the State to take care of their workers should not be in a position to declare a profit. Why is it the taxpayer’s job to take care of their workers for them? Why should a transfer of money take place from the State into corporate profits under these conditions?

No reason at all. A simple solution to this is to restrict salaries to a maximum amount and to only allow a profit to be declared once a company has paid the government for all the benefits given to their employees by the State. For the sake of argument, let’s say the maximum salary in the presence of subsidy can be £100,000. All contracts for amounts greater than that require clearing all State subsidy debts first AND the State get’s its subsidy back before any other creditor.

Extreme perhaps but it highlights the point: where does “profit” begin and “subsidy” stop.  It also indicates who benefits from this type of subsidy. Benefits given to working people do not really benefit those people, they benefit the companies who employ them by allowing them to pay lower wages. If the employer were required to pay appropriate salaries, the benefit would not be required, nor for that matter would the taxes supporting those benefits be needed.


This is a preliminary to trying to understand who benefits from a University education.

Wednesday, 25 May 2016

Unions, strikes and unintended consequences.



When you join a Union, it is a little like joining an army with really bad discipline. You pay your dues to join and in return you give up some of your voice to the leaders of the union. They negotiate with your employer, sometimes consulting you, give you a vote toward strike action, and set out a strategy.

Therein lies the rub. The problem with organised labour is not that they are no longer needed or relevant – quite the opposite. The problem of organised labour is incompetence. Their hearts are in the right place but if they were a real army no one would go into battle. 

Where am I going with this?

I am on strike today. The decision to observe the strike was not so simple. I agree with the Union’s key positions. They are still trying to claw back the loss of earnings to inflation. Since 2009, they reckon we have lost 14.5% to inflation and are asking for around 5% pay rise. I say around 5% because I can’t find the actual value at the moment without logging into my work email. When they were asking us to vote I had to ask what the union positions were. I also can’t seem to find this in the news. I support the position, but the communication is appalling. We have been offered 1.1%.

The Union is also campaigning for gender equality in pay and to oppose the casualisation of contracts. I agree with these as well. A pay gap of 12.6% between men and women is still not good enough and 75,000 staff on “atypical” contracts is getting close to the point where “atypical” becomes “typical”. I understand both numbers are nuanced and the issues complex, but neither is good for universities or their students.

The problem is I do not think the Union capable of getting any of this. 

It is not that they are not powerful enough. It is not that these are not worthy causes. It is that they are strategically stupid. That stupidity is undermining their support (at least from me). That stupidity will be costly in terms of morale, members’ money, and labour relations.

Here is why. Academic staff have only one real weapon. Employers really don’t care about the odd strike day here and there. It costs them nothing. They lose nothing. Universities are an enterprise that runs almost completely to a yearly cycle. The income comes mostly once a year and staff at universities get things done. If I go out sick for a day, my work does not go away. I have to do it when I return. Same is true with strikes. It all gets done in the end one way or another. I will still do the work I did not do when I return. It is close to impossible to escape. Academic work is like that.

There is only one Achilles heel: the end of year when we mark exams and collate and turn in our results. It is also where a campaign with limited discipline can be very effective.

... and all the ducks were in a row. The ballot closed beginning of May. The results were in and the Union announced a marking boycott, except they plan to consider it for a non-strategic time. Rather, they opted for a 2 day strike (today and tomorrow), followed by a discretionary strike day, followed by another in August on a day no one will care about, followed by insanity, a marking boycott to be considered for autumn term.
 
I nearly decided to not observe the strike. I agree with what it wants to accomplish but there are lots of things I would like to do in life but can’t. I have limited appetite for lost causes. Participation in a campaign I think will be long, costly, and, almost certainly, doomed to failure is not something I find compelling.

Then everything fell into place after an email from an unexpected source. It was a bit of humanity on the part of my University that announced it would be donating out lost wages to the student benevolent fund. I can live with that. I doubt it was intended to convince people to strike. But it seemed respectful somehow, acknowledging the disagreement while making clear no matter the outcome and cost, something good will come of it.

Monday, 11 January 2016

Zen and the Art of League Table Maintenance: Leading the pack with no degrees.

There is a zen koan about the sound of the one hand clapping. There is a modern version of this, “what is the league table position of no chemistry programme.” To appreciate the zen of this question, contemplate one of the league tables for Chemistry in the UK.

Which university has the highest ranked chemistry programme? The screenshot below, taken on 12/01/2016 is from the Complete University Guide and may be helpful.


At first glance, there is nothing really surprising at the top of the list. It is Cambridge followed by Durham, Oxford, and Imperial. Where is the zen?

The zen is in the fact that the loudest hand clapping is the one with no chemistry degree on offer. No chemistry degree tops out the table. Cambridge does not offer a chemistry degree.

Cambridge offers a natural science degree. Natural Science lives in the zen of no league table. It shares no league table status with programmes such as forensic science, but if you search the Cambridge web site you will find no Chemistry degree. You will find degrees containing chemistry content, but no chemistry degree as such.

There is a certain pleasure in a league table dominated by no programme and a truly great programme (Natural Sciences at Cambridge) dominating no league table. It puts the zero sum game which is league table position into the no where it belongs.


Disclaimer: Having looked at the Cambridge programme, I really do think it is a good programme. It is a diverse programme allowing a broad scientific education which is more similar to my own than most UK degrees. This is post is meant as critique of league tables and their perversity and not intended as a criticism of the quality of Cambridge University. Cambridge does offer Chemical engineering, but this is covered by its own league table.

Tuesday, 9 June 2015

Universities and Administrative Bloat II: The UK is Improving




A further look at HESA data on Academic vs. Non-academic staffing in UK Universities reveals an encouraging trend. The UK overall is not as a whole moving toward greater and greater non-academic staffing. As a whole they have shed non-academic staff proportionally over the 5 years 2009/10 to 2013/14. 

As a reminder about the issue of administrative bloat, there is a conversation much of it based in the states about the growth of non-academic roles in universities. Examples are here and here. For the UK, there are trends that can be discovered using HESA data.

Note about the data: The data are provided by HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) and if you wish to look for yourself follow the content links found here and scroll to Table 1 in each year. There are nearly 20 years of data :). The data I will present today is 2009/10 and 2013/14 (the most recent year for which data is available). For this discussion, I am equating non-academic with administration. This may not be completely appropriate as there are things non-academic staff do which are not really administrative (Such as gardening and mail delivery), however, I think it makes a good index. What I did is divide the total column in the academic contract section by the non-academic column in the HESA tables. I then subtracted the value in 2009/10 from the value in 2013/14. Some institutions changed their name or were not included in the earlier table (or perhaps did not report?). As a result, a few will be missing.

With that in mind, you might ask...

Q: Are there institutions getting administrative bloat under control in the UK? 

A: Definitely. What is interesting is that the star performer in the overall proportion  of academic staff is also the one that improved the most. The Guildhall School of Music and Drama had the highest ratio of academic/non-academic staff (see previous post) and also leads this table (3.2!). This is over double the next best (1.17) found at the Arts University College of Bournmouth. 

It is also notable the prominence of institutions involved in arts and music in the upper ranks of both league tables. It might be worth calling the Guildhall School and asking them what they are up to and if it is a conscious policy.

Q: Are there Institutions that need to look at what they are doing?

A: Yes. Birkbeck College (-1.10) and the University of Buckingham (-0.57) are sitting at the bottom. Birkbeck still has an exceptionally high proportion of academic staff (1.99) and is still in the top 10 in that regard. The University of Buckingham however, seems to have changed from quite high (1.13 in 2009/10) to low (0.57 in 2013/14) this is a big shift in staffing behaviour.

Q: What is typical?

A: Most institutions have shed non-academic staff as a proportion. The median value is 0.07 ( trend toward more academics than non-academics) and the average is 0.10.

Q: What do the best universities look like?

A: The top 10 ranked universities (as ranked by the Guardian) are Cambridge (0.12), Oxford (0.12), St. Andrews (0.10), Surrey (0.14), Bath (-0.10), Durham (0.00), Warwick (0.00), Imperial (0.04), Exeter (0.09), and Lancaster (0.14). In general they are mostly stable and increasing the proportion of academic staff.

The top 10 UK universities as ranked by QS are: Cambridge (0.12), Imperial (0.04), Oxford (0.12), University College London (0.03), Kings College London (0.20), Edinburgh (0.15), Bristol (0.16), Manchester (0.17), Glasgow (0.10), and Warwick (0.00). With the exception of Warwick, all are improving.
Conclusion: Based on the data, most universities in the UK are behaving as if they believe a greater proportion of academic staff will lead to better performance.

A league table is below which sorts the institutions from highest to lowest change in the ratio over the five year period. 




HE provider

change in ratio 2009/10 to 2013/14
1
Guildhall School of Music and Drama
3.20
2
The Arts University College at Bournemouth
1.17
3
Ravensbourne
1.03
4
Norwich University College of the Arts
0.75
5
University of Ulster
0.74
6
The University of Northampton
0.68
7
Kingston University
0.58
8
The Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama
0.57
9
University of the Arts, London
0.56
10
London South Bank University
0.52
11
University for the Creative Arts
0.41
12
Staffordshire University
0.38
13
The University of Essex
0.38
14
The University of Wales (central functions)
0.35
15
Middlesex University
0.33
16
Goldsmiths College
0.33
17
University of Wales Institute, Cardiff
0.30
18
Brunel University
0.27
19
Conservatoire for Dance and Drama
0.27
20
The University of Stirling
0.26
21
Cardiff University
0.24
22
University of Gloucestershire
0.24
23
The University of Central Lancashire
0.24
24
Leeds College of Music
0.23
25
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine(#5)
0.22
26
Queen Margaret University, Edinburgh
0.22
27
The University of Salford
0.22
28
University College Falmouth
0.21
29
The Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts
0.21
30
The University of Bolton
0.20
31
The University of East London
0.20
32
King's College London
0.20
33
St George's Hospital Medical School
0.19
34
London School of Economics and Political Science
0.19
35
Newman University College
0.18
36
The Manchester Metropolitan University
0.18
37
The University of Kent
0.18
38
Bangor University
0.17
39
The University of Manchester
0.17
40
St Mary's University College
0.16
41
The University of Bristol
0.16
42
Heriot-Watt University
0.16
43
The University of Liverpool
0.15
44
Royal College of Music
0.15
45
The University of Greenwich
0.15
46
The University of Edinburgh
0.15
47
The University of Plymouth
0.14
48
The University of Surrey
0.14
49
The University of Birmingham
0.14
50
The University of Dundee
0.14
51
University of Derby
0.14
52
The University of Lancaster
0.14
53
The University of Reading
0.13
54
Liverpool John Moores University
0.13
55
Royal College of Art
0.13
56
Royal Northern College of Music
0.13
57
The University of Leicester
0.12
58
Buckinghamshire New University
0.12
59
The University of Cambridge
0.12
60
The University of Oxford
0.12
61
The University of Sussex
0.11
62
Cranfield University
0.11
63
The University of Glasgow
0.10
64
The University of Keele
0.10
65
Canterbury Christ Church University
0.10
66
The University of Northumbria at Newcastle
0.10
67
Liverpool Hope University
0.10
68
The University of St Andrews
0.10
69
The University of Exeter
0.09
70
The University of Hull
0.09
71
Royal Academy of Music
0.09
72
The University of Leeds
0.09
73
Loughborough University
0.08
74
The University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne
0.08
75
Queen Mary and Westfield College
0.08
76
Scottish Agricultural College
0.08
77
The City University
0.07
78
Swansea University
0.07
79
The Robert Gordon University
0.07
80
The University of the West of Scotland
0.06
81
University of Abertay Dundee
0.06
82
The University of Aberdeen
0.06
83
Central School of Speech and Drama
0.06
84
Harper Adams University College
0.05
85
The University of Southampton
0.05
86
Edinburgh Napier University
0.05
87
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine
0.04
88
The University of Wolverhampton
0.04
89
University of the Highlands and Islands
0.04
90
The University of Brighton
0.04
91
The University of Sheffield
0.03
92
Southampton Solent University
0.03
93
York St John University
0.03
94
University College London
0.03
95
The University of Lincoln
0.03
96
Oxford Brookes University
0.03
97
The University of York
0.02
98
The University of Bradford
0.02
99
The School of Oriental and African Studies
0.02
100
Royal Agricultural College
0.02
101
London Metropolitan University
0.02
102
The University of Strathclyde
0.02
103
The University of Teesside
0.01
104
Glasgow School of Art
0.01
105
Bournemouth University
0.00
106
The University of Sunderland
0.00
107
De Montfort University
0.00
108
The University of Warwick
0.00
109
University of Durham
0.00
110
The University of Nottingham
-0.01
111
University of Chester
-0.01
112
The Queen's University of Belfast
-0.02
113
Writtle College
-0.02
114
Institute of Education
-0.02
115
University College Birmingham
-0.02
116
Aberystwyth University
-0.02
117
The University of Portsmouth
-0.02
118
University of Cumbria
-0.03
119
University of London (Institutes and activities)
-0.03
120
The University of Worcester
-0.03
121
The University of Winchester
-0.03
122
The Royal Veterinary College
-0.04
123
Stranmillis University College
-0.04
124
Sheffield Hallam University
-0.05
125
Courtauld Institute of Art
-0.06
126
London Business School
-0.06
127
Trinity Laban Conservatoire of Music and Dance
-0.06
128
Bishop Grosseteste University College Lincoln
-0.07
129
Royal Holloway and Bedford New College
-0.07
130
Edge Hill University
-0.07
131
The Nottingham Trent University
-0.08
132
Glasgow Caledonian University
-0.09
133
University Campus Suffolk
-0.09
134
Leeds Metropolitan University
-0.09
135
St Mary's University College, Twickenham
-0.10
136
The University of Bath
-0.10
137
The Institute of Cancer Research
-0.11
138
Glyndŵr University
-0.12
139
University of Hertfordshire
-0.12
140
Aston University
-0.13
141
Bath Spa University
-0.15
142
University of the West of England, Bristol
-0.16
143
Birmingham City University
-0.17
144
Rose Bruford College
-0.18
145
Roehampton University
-0.20
146
The University of Westminster
-0.22
147
Leeds Trinity University College
-0.22
148
The Open University
-0.22
149
The University of Chichester
-0.23
150
The University of East Anglia
-0.24
151
The University of Huddersfield
-0.25
152
Anglia Ruskin University
-0.29
153
Coventry University
-0.30
154
Heythrop College
-0.30
155
University of Bedfordshire
-0.35
156
The University of Buckingham
-0.56
157
Birkbeck College
-1.10




Median
0.07

Average
0.10